Bitcoin has already matured into digital gold, but still has a lot of room to grow.
Bitcoin has matured
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $30k and has a market cap of $584 billion. It's yearly emissions amount to approximately $10 billion. In addition, there are Bitcoin whales who live by selling down their Bitcoin stack, creating additional sell flows. Let's say they sell 0.5% of the Bitcoin supply per year, creating a total sell flow of $12.5 billion.
However, the price isn't going to 0! Which means there are also approximately, on average, $12.5 billion of buy flows. IN CASH!
$12.5 billion is a significant amount of cash. There are large and small investors who are purchasing lots and lots of Bitcoin, who are well educated on Bitcoin, with the intention of holding it as an asset indefinitely. I see this as evidence that Bitcoin has indeed matured into digital gold.
Bitcoin is valuable
If you observe a list of assets by market cap , excluding real estate and bonds, Bitcoin is quite high on the list. In fact, other than a few massive tech companies, Bitcoin is more valuable than pretty much any other business on Earth!
In terms of commodities, it's only worth less than gold and silver.
Saudi Arabia's wealth fund has $780 billion of AUM. Bitcoin is very close to that!
If you look at a list of the world's biggest (publicly known) hedge funds , you can see that Bitcoin is worth multiples worth more than the biggest one, which is Ray Dalio's Bridgewater with $126 billion AUM.
So not only does Bitcoin have significant sell flows that are balanced by significant buy flows, Bitcoin also has a very large amount of wealth stored in it.
What lies ahead for Bitcoin
Yet, at the same time, Bitcoin is still so very early.
The US government is spending $7-$8 trillion dollars per year. That could buy the entire supply of Bitcoin ten times over.
Lockheed Martin, one of the weapons companies in the military-industrial complex, has yearly sales of $66 billion. You almost certainly couldn't buy that much Bitcoin at current prices - there simply wouldn't be enough supply.
Google has an yearly revenue of $280 billion dollars, with a yearly profit of $160 billion dollars. Again, you couldn't spend even a fraction of those numbers buying Bitcoin without running into a serious supply shortage.
Clearly, there is a tremendous amount of wealth that isn't allocated to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is going to:
- become worth more than any other company on this planet
- then, become worth a comparable amount to gold
- then, hopefully, become worth significantly more than gold as it absorbs value from every other store of value on this planet, and becomes a massive bubble that will never pop in fiat terms since it's used as a medium of exchange
Granted, barring black swan crises, it will likely take many, many halvenings and many bullruns, but this is what I see in store for Bitcoin in the eventual future. Inshallah.