Bitcoin has been trading in the same $15k-$30k range for about an year and a half now. For the last 6 months, it's been trading between $25k and $30k. During this time, I've been able to appreciate what Bitcoin is and what it isn't.

Bitcoin is steadfast

Bitcoin is NOT a trade. The Bitcoin thesis of becoming the world's future sound money isn't something that's going to play out today, and it's not going to play out tomorrow, or in a week, or in a month, or even in an year. It's not going to be proven true once Bitcoin pumps to any specific price, and neither will it be proven false by a Bitcoin dump to some very low price.

In fact, the Bitcoin thesis isn't something that will ever be "proven true" one day. Bitcoin can only continue to prove itself day after day, year after year, halving after halving, until eventually, it can prove undeniably that it has been around for a long, long time. Bitcoin will slowly transform into money over these many years, through the decisions of hundreds of millions of individual market participants - not by decree.

Bitcoin is a lighthouse in a storm. It's a steadfast rock that sits quietly while the world around it is spinning in chaos. It's not a trade. It's a dynastic macro investing play that will take a long time to play out.

What will draw people to Bitcoin?

What will continue to draw people to Bitcoin is a real desire to escape the fiat system where everyone's money is slowly burning on fire and society itself is collapsing.

Bitcoin is digital gold. And it serves a real utility because people can use it to store value without risks of confiscation and debasement. It's much easier to take custody of and store than physical gold.

There are obviously alternatives to storing value - fiat debt, businesses, real estate, art, etc. Yet none of these are truly money. They are all inferior to Bitcoin - they can be debased, they can only be held with third parties, they can be confiscated, etc.

What are the risks?

From my understanding, the only black swan events that could kill Bitcoin are:

• advancements in quantum computing that undermine Bitcoin cryptography
• some global crisis or conflict that destroys grid and Internet infrastructure

Ultimately, Bitcoin is an experiment. It hasn't even been around for 20 years, which is basically one human generation. I can't think of a word that is more appropriate to describe Bitcoin today than "experiment".

However, even during it's short life, Bitcoin has had chance after chance to fail:

• in the beginning, when almost no people thought it had any value whatsoever
• after its first parabolic bull run
• blocksize wars and hard forks
• could have been hacked for nearly 15 years now

And yet Bitcoin is still here to this day, at a near all-time high price. That signifies something... and it is up to us to figure out what that something is, rather than project our own opinions onto reality.

Conclusion

It would be prudent for anyone who wishes to maintain the value of their savings or wealth to have a small allocation of Bitcoin, IMHO. Those with a greater appetite for risk and desire for larger potential upside can consider larger allocations. Contingent on due diligence, of course.

Human life is short, and Bitcoin is very young - younger than even the average human today. The only thing Bitcoin can do right now is continue to prove itself over time by being a steadfast rock in a whirling storm. Patience is key.