Welcome to what I believe to be my ultimate endgame Bitcoin thesis - The Final Parabola.

The Final Parabola

I'm not sure how long this will take to play out. But I have a feeling it will take shape within a decade. Even sooner than that perhaps.

So, what is The Final Parabola?

Take a look at the current Bitcoin price chart, on a logarithmic scale:

BTC price chart

Notice how the price is shaped like a logarithmic curve?

Logarithmic Curve

Some people use this fact to extrapolate that the future Bitcoin price will follow a log curve forever:

Bitcoin Log Curve

The explanation given for this is typically diminishing returns and lengthening cycles. More specifically, that:

• It becomes more difficult to lift Bitcoin's price higher the higher the Bitcoin price is
• More time is required to drag in the larger amounts of money required to lift Bitcoin's price the higher the Bitcoin price is

However, I think the Bitcoin logarithmic curve model only works in the short-term, and will be wrong in the long-term. Instead, I think the Bitcoin price chart will eventually take this shape:

Flipped S-Curve

I'm not talking about the specific dimensions. I'm simply talking about the overall shape. While the logarithmic curve follows diminishing returns forever, the flipped S-curve shape I'm showing here reaches an inflection point where it turns into a parabola. This is what I'm referring to when I say "the final parabola".

The Final Parabola Labeled

So why do I think we will see a final parabola on the Bitcoin price chart?

First of all, the logarithmic curve model simply doesn't make sense to me when it comes to how I think Bitcoin will be adopted by the masses:

• If the price just keeps making smaller and smaller gains over longer and longer cycles, that means adoption will get dragged on over longer and longer timeframes.
• But we Bitcoiners all know Bitcoin is a viral, viral idea and that once people get it, adoption will spread like wildfire and eventually everyone will be selling everything they own to buy Bitcoin.
• Q: So where's that mass hysteria and hype in the Bitcoin logarithmic curve price model?
• A: It ain't there. It doesn't match up.

That's where my idea comes in. The reasoning for my idea begins with the adoption S-curve, which refers to the stages of adoption of a new product. Notice the inflection point labeled near the bottom of the curve in blue:

Adoption S-Curve

The S-curve becomes more interesting when we combine it with a population distribution of market participants:

Adopters S-Curve

Currently, I believe we are still in the "Innovators" section of Bitcoin adoption as money. Here's some justification for that:

• Total wealth allocation to Bitcoin is not even 1%
• Total number of wholecoiners in the world is nowhere close to 1%
• No one I personally know has a significant Bitcoin allocation

How is the inflection point related to adoption?

So, what new force am I looking for? I'm looking for the inflection point.

The inflection point is where the adoption rate suddenly seems to change... from gradually, to suddenly. Sound familiar?

Take another look at this diagram. Notice how the adoption is really slow before the inflection point, but becomes significantly quicker after the inflection point?:

Adoption Rate Picking Up After Inflection Point

It may have taken a decade just to get through the "Innovators" stage and near the inflection point. But the rest of the adoption will happen at a much, much faster rate. Such is the parabolic nature of the S-curve, and the viral nature of Bitcoin.

What will this force of rapid adoption look like? I know exactly what it will look like - mass market euphoria. Animal spirits. Green candles. FOMO. That force that we are all so familiar with. The force that made all of us FOMO into Bitcoin in the first place.

What will the trigger be for this force to take over the world? Well, it turns out that FOMO is actually a self-reinforcing force. It started from nothing and created an ever-growing history of repeated Bitcoin ATHs. Even left untouched, it will take over the entire world on its own. However, a sudden loss of confidence around the world in the dollar system could be a catalyst that speeds it up. And in fact, a loss of confidence in the dollar system is exactly what motivated Satoshi to create Bitcoin. Funny how that works.

Anyways, regardless of the exact sequence of events, eventually the final parabola will happen. We know it'll happen because eventually the whole world will realize that they shouldn't have confidence in the dollar system. This will lead to the parabola where the whole world onboards to Bitcoin by FOMOing into it. The parabola which is depicted in the second half of the S-curve.

What does the inflection point look like on the price chart?

I believe the inflection point on the adoption curve is the same as the center point on the flipped S-curve shape. To give a complete picture, I've made a complete diagram overlaying the flipped S-curve shape with the adoption curve:

The Complete Diagram

So far it's been around 14 years since Bitcoin was created. During this time, we've been in the left side of the above diagram.

I think we may soon enter the right side of the shape. And in fact, we may have actually already entered it very recently.

So, to put everything together, what does my vision for the eventual BTC price chart look like? Well, I can't give exact timeframes, but it might look something like this:

My Prediction

Let me give a specific timeframe prediction. I predict, with 80% certainty, that the inflection point is within 1.5 years of today - July 4, 2023. The backwards border is determined from Feb 24 2023, which is the date when Russia began its SMO to invade Ukraine. This ultimately led to the West stealing Russia's forex reserves, making the entire world lose confidence in the dollar monetary system. The forward border is determined as approximately one year after the upcoming March 2024 halvening. Halvenings typically require some time to create the parabolas that they usually create. Finally, there are also many important events within this range, such as the ongoing US banking crisis and the upcoming 2024 US presidential election. So, taking all those macro events into account, that's my 3-year range for the inflection point with an 80% certainty.

Closing Thoughts

Bitcoin might just be the most viral product ever created - the product of sound money. A product that literally every person on this planet desperately needs. I think that means the S-curve and adoption rate is going to be ridiculously, ridiculously vertical.

Remember. Bitcoin started at 0 against the dollar. And the dollar is eventually going to 0 against Bitcoin. That's not hyperbole. My idea ties those two events together into a harmonious geometric shape on the price chart using the idea of the adoption S-curve.

Final notes:

• The Final Parabola will be what people oft refer to as hyperbitcoinization
• The Final Parabola will likely coincide with the fall of the dollar, and subsequently, the fall of America's empire

Let's see what happens - gradually, then suddenly.

Bookkeeping

Thanks to all my fellow Bitcoiners who provided ideas that I built off of to create The Final Parabola idea.

Just to name a few:

• Balaji for your BitSignal idea
• Parker Lewis for "Gradually, Then Suddenly"
• Daniel Krawisz for Hyperbitcoinization
• Su Zhu for your supercycle thesis
• Bitcoin educators such as Gigi, Samson, Max Keiser, Saifedean, Erik Voorhees, and Jesse Myers
• Traders such as davthewave, CrediBULL Crypto, Ben Cowen
• Macro analysts such as Luke Gromen, Peruvian Bull and Lyn Alden
• Of course Satoshi for Bitcoin itself
• and many, many more who I haven't mentioned.

I'm very grateful to all of you. Let's all make The Final Parabola happen together and make the world a better place.

One last thing. If you're a Bitcoiner but you sell shitcoins to people instead of Bitcoin. You're being dishonest and you're hurting and stealing from other people. You should be ashamed of what you're doing. Please fix your ways. Luckily for you, it's never too late. And FYI, if you truly believe The Final Parabola will happen (which you should since you're a Bitcoiner), it's also in your best interest to fix your ways ASAP because once The Final Parabola happens, everyone will know that you were doing bad things to them and others. And if you're an Etherean who is a Bitcoiner at heart, I'm speaking to you as well. We all know Bitcoin is the only blockchain-based contender for the world's future money and has always been the only such contender. If we all work together we can make The Final Parabola happen sooner rather than later. And don't we all want it to happen? I think we do. I urge you not to lose sight of the original dream. Let's not sabotage ourselves, each other, the rest of the world (which desperately needs Bitcoin), and Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin needs us. And the world will be a better place once The Final Parabola is finished.

If you found my message valuable and want to show appreciation, you can send a tip to my Lighting wallet. I promise to use your tip to help spread my message and advance Bitcoin adoption.

Lightning QR Code

If you want The Final Parabola to happen, share this message to everyone you know so they all know what is coming. We are the ones who will make The Final Parabola happen.

What are the odds?

And don't forget, this is what comes after The Final Parabola:

A message from Morpheus.